News

At the start of the year, CoinDesk research indicated that the Dollar index (DXY) a measure of the U.S. dollar’s strength against a basket of major trading partners was mirroring its trajectory from Donald Trump’s first term as president.

Between September 2024 and January 2025, coinciding with Trump’s re-election, the DXY index climbed from 100 to 110. This current cycle, the index peaked at 110 in mid-January but has since dropped below 105 for the first time since mid-November. If the DXY were to fall to around 103, it would erase all its gains since Trump's victory in November.

Typically, a DXY index above 100 is considered strong, which tends to put pressure on risk assets. However, as the index dipped below 105, bitcoin (BTC) rose above $88,000.

A similar pattern was observed in 2017 when the DXY fell from 103 to below 90, coinciding with bitcoin’s bull run that year, that saw it top out at $20,000 in December.

Despite this, macroeconomic uncertainty persists, with concerns surrounding tariffs , inflation, and U.S. GDP growth. The economy appears to be slowing, and Friday’s jobs report is expected to show a continuation of 4.0% unemployment rate.

If the report comes in weaker than anticipated, treasury yields could continue declining, increasing the likelihood that the Federal Reserve could consider a rate cut in its March meeting.