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(Bloomberg) -- Oil prices for next year have fallen alongside nearby futures markets, a move that runs the risk of menacing supply growth.

While US crude slipped toward $65 a barrel Wednesday to briefly touch the lowest level since May 2023, average prices for 2026 are closer to $62. The same gauge of benchmark Brent futures for next year was trading near $65 on Thursday.

If sustained, those prices are approaching levels that may begin threatening output growth. More than three-quarters of US oil producers were assuming a crude price above $65 a barrel when making capital spending plans for 2025, according to a Dallas Fed survey released in January.

Average prices for the rest of this year were at $64.80 on Thursday.

Crude’s sharp decline has been pushed by the dual forces of President Donald Trump’s tariff war with some of America’s largest trade partners, and OPEC+ unexpectedly announcing plans to push ahead — for now — with a series of supply increases this week.

Together with technical selling, those factors have steeped pressure on crude prices all the way along the futures curve.

“The whole curve came down, which means the market prices in OPEC+ sticking with the 18-month path to return the voluntary cuts to the market,” said Aldo Spanjer, a senior commodities desk strategist at BNP Paribas. “A $62 price in 2026 for WTI is perilously low as economics for new US production become difficult in the low $60s.”

Even before the recent drop in prices, ConocoPhillips, Devon Energy Corp. and APA Corp. announced plans to limit oil production growth to 5% or less this year. Many companies’ path to profit is now more focused on lowering costs than growing production.

The strategy helps offset low oil prices while also preserving their finite runway of drilling locations for the future.

Citigroup Inc. said relatively high-cost producers with high decline rates, such as some US shale drillers, would be vulnerable to prices near $60 a barrel. The bank recommended producers hedge against those to guarantee their revenues.

A slowdown in US oil production may come as relief for the OPEC+ alliance led by Saudi Arabia, giving it room to press on with its scheduled production revival.

But with crude prices already significantly below the levels that Riyadh and many of its partners need to cover government spending, it’s also possible the cartel could suspend the hikes if price declines continue. OPEC+ has stressed that its moves can be “paused or reversed subject to market conditions.”

Saudi Arabia needs prices above $90 a barrel to fund ambitious economic transformation plans, according to the International Monetary Fund.

“OPEC officials have indicated that it will remain sensitive to market conditions, so it is possible that the group will have just have a few monthly output increases before they come to a halt again later this year,” said Martijn Rats, global oil strategist at Morgan Stanley.

--With assistance from Kevin Crowley and David Wethe.