News

By Ankur Banerjee

SINGAPORE (Reuters) -Asian stocks fell sharply on Tuesday as a market selloff extended on mounting worries that a wide-ranging trade war could dent U.S. economic growth and lead to a recession, sending skittish investors to the safe-haven Japanese yen.

Investor concerns about the potential economic slowdown were exacerbated after President Donald Trump in a Fox News interview talked about a "period of transition" while declining to predict whether his tariffs would result in a U.S. recession.

Those comments and worries sapped risk sentiment, sending stocks sliding and weighing on the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields. [FRX/]

In Asia, stocks were battered across the board with Japan's Nikkei and Taiwan stocks hitting their lowest levels since September. Australia's benchmark index closed 0.8% lower having touched a seven-month low earlier in the day.

Even Chinese stocks, which have been on a tear this year, were not immune to the downbeat mood. The blue-chip index fell 0.5%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index slid 1%.

Asian markets were taking their cues from Wall Street where the S&P 500 fell 2.7% on Monday, its biggest one-day drop this year, while the Nasdaq slid 4.0%, its biggest single-day percentage drop since September 2022.

Fears of an economic downturn have driven a stock market selloff that has wiped out $4 trillion from the S&P 500’s peak last month.

The S&P and Nasdaq futures cut steep losses from early Asian morning on Tuesday to trade slightly higher ahead of European open. European futures stabilised as well and pointed to a steady start.

Prashant Newnaha, a senior Asia-Pacific rates strategist at TD Securities, said most traders believed Trump would blink if stocks tanked.

"Markets have now gotten the memo that the administration is intent on ripping the band-aid off. Tariffs and recession may be the medicine to create disinflation and getting that 10-year yield lower. For now it's a controlled demolition."

The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes fell 2 basis points on Tuesday after dropping 10 bps in the previous session, the largest daily drop in almost a month.

The two-year note yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations for the Federal Reserve, fell to a five-month low and was last down 1.5 bps at 3.8808%. [US/]

Traders are now pricing in 85 bps of easing from the Fed this year, compared to 75 bps on Monday, LSEG data showed, betting weak U.S. growth will compel the Federal Reserve to start easing again.

Wednesday's U.S. consumer price index report could scuttle those expectations if it confirms that inflation is still simmering at levels that force the Fed to keep monetary policy tighter.

Investors are mindful of last month's hotter-than-expected CPI data that saw inflation rise 0.5% in January, its biggest monthly gain since August 2023. February's CPI is expected to have climbed 0.3%, according to a Reuters poll.

Safe havens were in demand, with the Japanese yen touching a five-month high against the dollar before giving up gains to trade flat at 147.35 per dollar. Still, the yen is up 7% against the dollar in 2025.

The Swiss franc also strengthened and was hovering near the three-month high touched on Monday. It was last at 0.8791 per dollar on Tuesday.

The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six other units, was huddled near a four-month low. The index has dropped over 4% so far this year.

Unlike Trump's first term, when signs of cracks in the economy or stock market would have seen a pivot on trade policy, this time around, Trump seems determined to stay the course, said Kyle Rodda, senior financial markets analyst at Capital.com.

"That's raising these fears about a major growth slowdown, possibly recession, caused by this very aggressive approach to trade. I think investors are coming to the shocking realisation that Trump doesn't have their back."

Citi analysts cut their recommendation for U.S. stocks to "neutral" from "overweight", arguing the U.S. economy may no longer outpace the rest of the world in the coming months.

In commodities, oil prices were steady as investors grappled with worries that U.S. tariffs would slow economies around the world and hurt energy demand while OPEC+ ramps up its supply. [O/R]

Gold prices inched higher to $2,895.75 per ounce, within touching distance of the record high hit last month. Gold is up 10% so far in 2025 after climbing 27% last year. [GOL/]