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Growing Fears of Corporate Defaults Hit US Credit Markets

(Bloomberg) -- Worries about corporate credit defaults rose in the US for a second straight day on Tuesday, after US President Donald Trump threatened to ratchet up tariffs on Canada.

In derivatives markets, the cost of protecting corporate credit against default rose to the some of the highest levels in nearly seven months. The spread on the Markit CDX North American Investment Grade Index widened as much as 2.4 basis points to its highest reading since mid-August.

In junk, the Markit CDX North American High Yield Index, which falls as credit risk rises, declined as much as 0.45 point Tuesday to its lowest on an intraday basis since August.

Credit derivatives also reflected growing investor concern about retailers and airlines. Five-year credit default swaps on Kohl’s Corp bonds rose as much as 150 basis points, the most in more than three years. Credit default swaps on air carriers such as American Airlines Group Inc. and Delta Air Lines Inc. also rose on the heels of earnings reports that warned of a weakening consumer.

“A lack of certainty around tariffs alongside concerns around growth have caused investor angst,” said Blair Shwedo, head of fixed income sales and trading at U.S. Bank.

In the new issue market market, around 20 high-grade borrowers were looking to sell bonds on Tuesday, but about half decided to delay their offerings instead. That marks the second day in a row that multiple issuers stood down to avoid broader market volatility.

Underscoring how unpredictable markets are now, credit derivatives began to take back some of their widening on Tuesday afternoon, after Ontario paused its 25% surcharge on electricity delivered to the US and Trump backed off on a trade policy decision announced earlier in the day. Easing tensions in Ukraine also lifted markets, even propelling the S&P 500 briefly into positive territory.

Even as headlines shift sentiment across broader markets on a dime, in credit, corporate cash balances are still high, investor demand for new bonds remains strong and money managers are still looking for yield, said Philipp Buff, a senior fixed-income investment manager at Pictet Asset Management.

“Overall, credit has behaved quite orderly,” he said. “I still get comfort that the world economy isn’t going down the drain.”

--With assistance from Michael Gambale, Aaron Weinman, Caleb Mutua and Rachel Graf.

(Updates with bond sales activity in sixth paragraph. An earlier version corrected historical reference point for index move in third paragraph.)