News

What Happened?

Shares of cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) jumped 6.8% in the afternoon session as stocks rebounded to start the session amid continued market volatility and moved slightly higher after the Federal Open Market Committee kept rates at 4.25% to 4.50% in its March 2025 meeting. The Jerome Powell-led committee also hinted at two more rate cuts for the year, saying, "Uncertainty around the economy has grown." The good news is that holding rates steady and signaling two additional cuts this year means no surprises (the market dislikes surprises). The bad news is that the Fed reduced its outlook growth to 1.7%, down from the previous projection of 2.1% in December. At the same time, the inflation outlook was raised to a 2.8% annual increase for core prices, up from the prior projection of 2.5%. This suggests the Fed sees the macro tilting towards a stagflation scenario, where inflation rises as economic growth slows.

The shares closed the day at $189.75, up 4.8% from previous close.

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What The Market Is Telling Us

Coinbase’s shares are extremely volatile and have had 71 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful but not something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.

The previous big move we wrote about was 8 days ago when the stock gained 7.8% on the news that stocks rebounded, following a broad-based sell-off the previous day. The Nasdaq was down 4%, while the S&P fell 2.7% as concerns over the ongoing trade war continued to spread. While those concerns haven't exactly disappeared, it's likely some investors looked to take positions in some of the beaten-down stocks, especially some of the high-quality names that got caught up in the sell-off.

Separately, the company reported it was expanding its operations to India after registering with India's Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU). According to the reports, the company planned to offer crypto trading services, which could increase its sales as it taps into a key retail market.

Coinbase is down 26% since the beginning of the year, and at $190.35 per share, it is trading 44.6% below its 52-week high of $343.62 from December 2024. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Coinbase’s shares at the IPO in April 2021 would now be looking at an investment worth $579.84.

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