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(Bloomberg) -- There’s a geographical divide growing in views of the stock market, with European banks more skeptical than their generally sanguine US rivals.

Strategists at Switzerland’s UBS Group AG and the U.K.’s HSBC Holdings Plc on Tuesday warned of further declines for US equities as economic risks mount. UBS thinks the S&P 500 Index could see another slump of 8% or so, while HSBC double-downgraded US stocks.

This diverges from what Wall Street giants like JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Morgan Stanley are saying. In recent days, the US money center banks speculated that the brunt of the recent equities selloff has likely ended, with JPMorgan strategists predicting a low risk of another momentum unwind, and Morgan Stanley seeing tailwinds for a “tradeable rally.”

The division underscores the difficulty of investment forecasting at a time when markets have few answers about the long-term toll of President Donald Trump’s tariffs, which are expected to kick in on April 2, and the trajectory of economic growth and inflation are so uncertain.

“What matters most to us is the probability of these unusually high levels of uncertainty disappearing entirely beyond April 2 — that probability seems pretty low,” HSBC chief multi-asset strategist Max Kettner wrote in a note to clients. Persistent tariff noise could spill over into “nastier” readings in US leading indicators and hard economic data, he added.

To that point, US consumer confidence fell in March to the lowest level in four years on concerns of higher prices and a weakening economy as tariff threats escalate, according to a gauge from the Conference Board. And Bank of America Corp. data out Tuesday showed clients were net sellers of US stocks for the first time in eight weeks.

Moving In Tandem

For much of last year, market forecasters bumped up their outlooks for US equities in tandem, chasing a rally that propelled the S&P 500 from one record high to another. But a quick 10% drop from the index’s February high caught them offsides, triggering a debate over which way stocks will go next.

Of course, the benchmark has bounced back in recent days as the White House signaled plans to take a more targeted approach to the tariffs coming next week. However, the ultimate outcome remains highly unpredictable since levies from the US are likely to trigger reciprocal responses from the countries they’re aimed at, making the economic consequences almost impossible to predict. And concerns that the two-year artificial intelligence boom may have run its course, at least for now, only adds to the sense of risk surrounding the stock market.

Investors’ faith in equities has been been shaken by volatility from a whirling cycle of on-and-off tariff plans, which explains why the recent dip-buying bounce backs have been short lived.

That’s part the reason HSBC thinks caution is warranted. At UBS, chief strategist Bhanu Baweja said warning signs are already evident in economic readings, setting the stage for the S&P 500 to plunge to as low as 5,300. It’s currently trading above 5,750.

Few Wall Street firms are calling for steeper losses, however. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Yardeni Research have reduced their expectations for the S&P 500 to account for the correction — but they still expect gains.

The average 2025 year-end target from strategists tracked by Bloomberg stands at 6,539 even after adjustments, implying a 13% rise from Monday’s close near 5,767 by December. The lowest prediction is from Stifel Nicolaus & Co. at 5,500, and the highest is from Oppenheimer & Co. at 7,100.