News

Oil Dips as Traders Assess Impact of Ceasefire on Russian Flows

(Bloomberg) -- Oil dipped, halting the longest rally in almost three months, after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy agreed to implement a partial truce, raising expectations that Russian crude will soon flow freely.

West Texas Intermediate futures dropped as much as 0.9% before clawing back most of those losses to settle down 0.2% at $69 a barrel. The decline followed Ukraine’s ceasefire declaration and a White House announcement of a nascent Russian agreement to ensure safe navigation in the Black Sea and spare energy infrastructure.

A potential truce between Russia and Ukraine is expected to lead to an easing of US and European restrictions on Moscow’s oil sector. Still, the muted market reaction signals trader skepticism that the development will have a significant or immediate impact on global supplies. Just last month, Russian oil exports reached a five-month high. Crude proceeds are a key source of finance for Russia’s war in Ukraine.

While the latest headlines “may reduce the risk for some buyers of Russian crude and refined products, easing sanctions may have a more significant impact on the Kremlin’s finances than on the global supply outlook,” said Fernando Ferreira, an analyst at Rapidan Energy.

The slide was limited by earlier news of Trump’s plan to hit buyers of Venezuelan oil with 25% tariffs, a move that would complicate business for refiners in China, India and Western Europe. A ratcheting up of pressure on Iranian and Venezuelan crude exports saw bullish Brent oil options trade at the highest volumes since early January.

Trump’s aggressive trade policies have heightened volatility across global markets, with US oil futures down more than 10% from this year’s mid-January peak. Some of that pressure has eased of late as a selloff in global equities abated.

--With assistance from Lucia Kassai and Alex Longley.