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Recent consumer sentiment data has been particularly grim.

Uncertainty around President Trump's tariff policy and its impacts has soured the consumer outlook for the economy, and the latest consumer confidence index reading hit its lowest level in more than four years during March, according to data released on Tuesday from the Conference Board.

But for now, the souring mood among consumers has only pushed economic forecasters to lower their expectations for growth . While recession risks have risen, it's far from a consensus call on Wall Street.

And while we may know what might make things turn the corner , its unpleasant corollary is just as important: what could make things worse .

Our Chart of the Week shows what that thing might be.

The decline in March consumer confidence was broad-based across income groups, with "the only exception being households earning more than $125,000 a year," the Conference Board noted. And it's a theme that's been showing up in other economic data points, most critically in the personal savings rate.

Most consumers don't feel good about the path forward, but high-income earners aren't panicking yet. This raises a key potential turning point for the economic narrative right now.

High-income consumers make up about half of US consumer spending . And if the big spenders are playing Atlas to the US economy right now, how those shoulders hold up is of paramount concern.

On the one hand, this could keep a lid on the potential impact of a weakening consumer, an economic firewall that staves off a recession.

But should the political uncertainty that's weighed on both consumer sentiment and the stock market keep pressuring stock prices lower , the odds of recession could be on the rise as the high-income demographic spending fails to hold up weakening economic activity.

According to Deutsche Bank senior US economist Brett Ryan, the big risk is how uncertainty affects asset prices. While this demographic is robust, "hitting their asset prices and hitting them meaningfully" is the kryptonite that could push that group into austerity mode. And with it, the economy onto the rocks.

"A 10% pullback in the stock market probably is not going to get the top 20% income cohort to really pull back on spending. A 20%-plus hit to equity prices, that's a different story," Ryan said. For what it's worth, a 20% pullback from recent all-time highs would put the S&P 500 ( ^GSPC ) just above 4,900, or about 12% lower than it is today.

Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi first pointed out this concept in Yahoo Finance's Chartbook back in January . Zandi argues that a key post-pandemic trend has been wealthy Americans saving less and spending more, thereby helping drive growth in the US economy amid a higher interest rate environment many thought would bring recession.

Zandi agrees with Ryan that the key risk to this trend would be a larger equity market sell-off. In that instance, wealthier Americans may save more, pushing the national savings rate higher and therefore slowing consumption to a point where the economy could tip into recession.

"The thing to watch is the US savings rate," Ajay Rajadhyaksha , the global chairman of research at Barclays, told Yahoo Finance. "That is the Achilles' heel for the US economy. It is extraordinarily low. It's been low for the last three, three and a half years."

Renaissance Macro head of economics Neil Dutta joined the choir in a Friday note: "one thing that worries me is an increase in the personal saving rate."

Rajadhyaksha echoed Ryan's assertion that "a steady drumbeat" of policy uncertainty, federal job cuts, actual tariffs, and a further equity markets pullback could push the savings rate higher and put a cap on what's been a resilient consumer.

Perhaps not the base case, but something Wall Street is keeping a close eye on.

"The risks are tilted to the downside if April 2 ends up being worse than expected," Rajadhyaksha said ahead of Trump's expected reciprocal tariff deadline.

Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer .