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'Pay premium' for switching jobs hits post-pandemic low
The gap between pay raises for job changers versus job stayers just hit its lowest level since the labor market began recovering from the pandemic in 2020.
New data from ADP released on Wednesday showed wage growth for job changers fell to 6.5% in March, down from 6.8% the month prior. Meanwhile, pay growth for job stayers slipped to 4.5%, in line with its lowest level in more than three years.
The difference between the two pay growth numbers, which ADP refers to as the "pay premium" workers see to change their jobs, sat at just 1.9%. This was in line with the lowest premium for job changer pay growth since ADP began tracking the data in November 2020.
ADP chief economist Nela Richardson told Yahoo Finance this data is another sign that the labor market has cooled over the past few years and lost its "dynamism."
"The US labor market is marked and characterized by dynamism," Richardson said. "You want some kind of flow in and out. You want companies to attract workers [with] better opportunities. And what we're seeing is basically firms are not laying off workers, and workers aren't quitting, and we're in this really stable equilibrium, but not a very dynamic one."
Richardson added that the decline in the pay premium for job movers could point to a further decline in the quits rate among workers. The quits rate, which is seen as a reading of confidence among workers about the health of the labor market, is already hovering near a decade low, hitting 2% in February .
ADP's Employment Report showed the private sector added 155,000 jobs in March, above economists' expectations for 120,000 — and significantly higher than the 85,000 added in February. February's number of job additions was revised up from a prior reading of 77,000.
Richardson described the headline increase as a "very good number," considering that uncertainty around President Trump's policies has recently driven several sentiment indicators from consumers and businesses lower. But under the surface, there weren't broad-based job gains.
Three sub-sectors — professional and business services, financial activities, and manufacturing — drove nearly 75% of the job gains in the month.
Another look at the state of the labor market is expected on Friday with the release of the March employment report. Consensus expects the report to show the US labor market added 140,000 jobs in the month, down from the 151,000 seen in February . Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is expected to have held steady at 4.1%.
Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer .