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Traders expect multiple rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year. What if there aren’t any?

The possibility was raised Monday by Larry Fink, CEO of asset manager BlackRock, during an interview at the Economic Club of New York. In the interview, Fink suggested that the latest Trump tariffs could inflame inflation, requiring higher rates to cool things off.

“This notion that the Federal Reserve’s gonna … ease four times this year, I see zero chance of that,” Fink said, according to a Bloomberg video of the event. “I’m much more worried that we could have elevated inflation that’s gonna bring rates up much higher than they are today.”

The U.S. central bank in mid-March kept its benchmark rate unchanged at a range of 4.25% to 4.5%. Futures traders assume a range of as low as 3.25% to 3.5% as of the Fed’s December meeting, implying as many as four quarter-percentage-point cuts, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool ; the odds of the rate remaining unchanged by then, or even rising, barely register.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Friday said "It's not clear to me at this time what the appropriate path for monetary policy will be,” during an appearance that came two days after President Donald Trump issued trade policy guidance—in short, a new set of global tariffs —that have roiled markets. (Read Investopedia ’s live coverage of Monday’s trading here .)

Fink in the Monday interview said the economy “is weakening as we speak.” Most CEOs he speaks with, Fink said, “would say we are probably in a recession right now.”

Many Wall Street economists have lately lifted their perceived odds of a recession .

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