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McDonald's, Starbucks, and other US chains could face anti-American pushback, Wall Street fears
As companies scramble to respond to Trump's wide-ranging reciprocal tariffs, anti-American sentiment towards US brands is emerging as another concern.
A baseline tariff of 10% went into effect on April 5, while higher reciprocal tariffs are set to begin on April 9.
For food chains, the headwind from tariffs on commodity imports is relatively small, as many ingredients are domestically grown and most imports from Canada and Mexico are exempt under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). But brands like McDonald's ( MCD ), Yum! Brands ( YUM ), Starbucks ( SBUX ), and Domino's ( DPZ ) have exposure to international markets that could hurt them as customers pull back, BTIG analyst Peter Saleh said.
"The bigger issue, in my mind, is the anti-American pushback in these countries on Western or US brands ... we'll see ... what companies say when they start reporting in the next couple of weeks, if they're starting to see that already," Saleh told Yahoo Finance.
Goldman Sachs estimates that foreign boycotts overall will cut US GDP by 0.1% to 0.3% this year, meaning a hit of roughly $28 billion to $83 billion.
Major fast food players were only beginning to turn the tide in their international business after the pandemic. China's "zero-COVID policy" lasted for three years, far longer than US policies. The stringent, prolonged shutdown had major implications for international sales.
Last quarter, McDonald's global same-store sales grew 0.4%, compared to the 0.91% decrease that Wall Street expected. Its US same-store sales were down 1.4% year over year, as an E. coli outbreak offset momentum in late October.
McDonald's international-owned stores saw positive same-store sales growth in the Middle East, which CFO Ian Borden attributed to the lapse of the impact of the Israeli conflict, plus growth in Japan and "encouraging signs of stabilization" in China.
Starbucks is still struggling to see a rebound in its international business. For its Q1 results , total same-store sales was down 4% year over year. International same-store sales fell 4%, and China sales dropped 6%.
Starbucks is facing a stagnant domestic economy and fierce local competition in China. CEO Brian Niccol said he visited and saw firsthand "how dynamic the market is and the opportunities ahead."
Prior to Niccol joining, the team said it was in the "very early stages" of exploring joint ventures and strategic partnerships in technology, real estate, and supply chain in the country.
For Yum China ( YUMC ), which separated from the US operation back in 2016 , fourth quarter same-store sales fell 1% for KFC and 2% for Pizza Hut. CEO Joey Wat called it a "challenging environment" with "value-minded consumers."
Domino's global retail sales grew 4.4% in its latest quarter. CFO Sandeep Reddy told investors, "As we look ahead to 2025, we continue to believe that global retail sales growth should be generally in line with 2024."
International growth is a key component for fast food players, which have seen flagging foot traffic and appetite in the US as competition from fast casual players like Chipotle ( CMG ) ramp up.
McDonald's put forth aggressive growth plans at the end of 2023 , including expanding to 50,000 global restaurants by 2027, the fastest pace of growth in its 68-year history. That same year, it agreed to buy back Carlyle's minority ownership stake in its China business for a reported $1.8 billion.
By 2025, Starbucks said it wanted to have 9,000 stores in China. As of the last quarter, the US and China make up 61% of the company's portfolio, with 17,049 and 7,685 stores in the two countries, respectively.
Chipotle ( CMG ) is also expanding its footprint. In 2023, it announced a development agreement to open restaurants in the Middle East and accelerate its international expansion efforts.
Yum! Brands' Taco Bell called international its "next growth engine" at its investor day last month, with plans to increase international store count to more than 3,000 by 2030, from 1,153 in 2024.
But there could be a major speed bump ahead.
"If the governments in those countries start to view US brands more negatively, they can slow-roll their approval process. They can deny them in certain areas, make it much more difficult for US brands to grow," Saleh said.
He added that it's "hard to assess" when it'll be the case.
"There could be some ... call it guilt by association," Tematica Research chief investment officer Chris Versace told Yahoo Finance. "The appetite for certain US brands could be diminished as a result of what we're seeing play out on the global economic and trade front."
He added, "Take a look at what we're seeing with Elon Musk and Tesla, where people are ... openly protesting, people returning their Teslas." He posed the question, "Could we see something similar unfold with other well-known US brands in foreign markets?"
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BrookeDiPalma