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Bitcoin Bull Run: Current Cycle Patterns Mirror Past Trends

As Bitcoin’s price consolidates near previous all-time highs, many are asking if the bull run is over. However, historical data suggests otherwise. The market is currently testing support at the "fair value band" (chart here) for the second time since the post-halving period began. This pattern mirrors the 2016 and 2020 cycles when Bitcoin similarly moved sideways before a major breakout. With only 124 days post-halving, and Bitcoin sitting at $55,000, it’s too early to declare the bull run finished. Historically, a price surge typically follows after around 160 days post-halving.

Whale Accumulation and Global Liquidity Indicate Strength

Institutional investors, particularly Bitcoin whales, are signaling confidence. Wallets holding between 100 to 1,000 Bitcoin have accumulated an additional 100,000 Bitcoin in just the last six weeks. This accumulation comes as Bitcoin consolidates at its fair value, indicating that large investors are positioning themselves for a future upswing. Additionally, global liquidity is rising, which has historically been a precursor to major Bitcoin price action. This pattern of liquidity driving price increases is one we’ve seen before, and current trends suggest that a significant upward move could be imminent.

Institutional Adoption and Dollar Weakness: Key Drivers Ahead

Beyond individual whale activity, institutional adoption is accelerating. A staggering 60% of the largest U.S. hedge funds now hold Bitcoin exposure, further legitimizing its role in traditional finance. Companies like MicroStrategy, which shifted its strategy to holding Bitcoin as treasury, saw exponential growth since 2021. Moreover, the strength of the U.S. dollar is another crucial factor to watch. Historically, Bitcoin’s price surges when the dollar weakens, and the current dollar index shows signs of a potential breakdown. This, coupled with institutional and retail adoption ramping up, suggests that Bitcoin’s bull market is not only intact but likely to accelerate in the coming months.