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October retail sales top estimates, September spending revised sharply higher
October retail sales grew from the prior month, reflecting continued resilience in the American consumer.
Retail sales rose 0.4% in October. Economists had expected a 0.3% rise in spending, according to Bloomberg data. Meanwhile, retail sales in September were revised up to a 0.8% increase from a prior reading that showed a 0.4% increase in the month, according to Census Bureau data . Auto sales drove a majority of the gains in October's reading, with sales in the sector rising 1.6%.
October sales, excluding auto and gas, rose just 0.1%, below consensus estimates for a 0.3% increase. The control group in Tuesday's release, which excludes several volatile categories and factors into the gross domestic product reading for the quarter, decreased by 0.1% in October, below estimates for 0.3% increase.
However, both categories saw large revisions for September sales. Revisions showed sales in both groups increased 1.2% in September, up from a previous reading of 0.7% growth.
"The underlying weakness in October’s retail sales was accompanied by an upward revision to September’s gain, suggesting that consumption growth is still going strong," Capital Economics North America economist Bradley Saunders wrote in a note to clients Friday morning.
Nationwide chief economist Kathy Bostjancic wrote that Friday's retail sales data shows "that consumers maintained upbeat spending momentum" at the start of the fourth quarter. This predicts another "solid" quarter of US economic growth to end 2024, Bostjancic wrote.
The report comes as investors continue to closely monitor the health of the US economy and the Federal Reserve dials back its restrictive interest rate policy. To date, economic data has largely been better than expected, a welcome sign for investors as markets shift to accept the Fed may not slash interest rates as quickly as initially hoped.
Read more: What the Fed rate cut means for bank accounts, CDs, loans, and credit cards
In prepared remarks on Thursday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said, “The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates."
Powell added, "The strength we are currently seeing in the economy gives us the ability to approach our decisions carefully.”
Friday's data also wraps a busy week of economic news.
Earlier this week, two reports showed price increases made little progress toward the Fed's 2% inflation goal during the month of October. The releases have raised debate over how much the Fed will cut interest rates in 2025 and have started to stir discussion about whether the central bank will cut rates again at all in 2024.
As of Friday morning, markets were pricing in a nearly 55% chance the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points at its next meeting on Dec. 18, down from a 72% chance seen on Thursday, per the CME FedWatch Tool.
Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer .