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Chinese Stocks Pare Early Surge Stoked by Policy Optimism

(Bloomberg) — A rally in Chinese shares ran out of steam, a sign that investors are hoping to see concrete steps from policymakers after their strongest pledge in years to revive economic growth.

The benchmark CSI 300 Index ( 000300.SS ) rose as much as 3.3% on the mainland before paring its gain to 0.7%. A gauge of Hong Kong-listed Chinese firms gave up its early gains to shed 0.4%.

The weakening momentum is the latest reminder of the challenges faced by authorities to fully restore investor confidence, despite repeated efforts since a stimulus blitz in late September to bolster an ailing economy. All eyes are now on a key annual economic policy meeting set to begin Wednesday, where authorities may offer more details about their latest pledge to step up monetary and fiscal easing.

“The actual delivery has disappointed high hopes several times already over the past two years,” said Xin-Yao Ng, investment director at abrdn. “We are back to the tricky stage of waiting for actual numbers to see whether it lives up to expectations.”

China’s local stock market had its first chance on Tuesday to react after the Communist Party’s decision-making body vowed to embrace a “moderately loose” strategy for monetary policy in 2025, marking its first major shift in stance since 2011. The Politburo also said authorities will take a “more proactive” approach on fiscal policy, stabilizing property and stock markets, while promising to “forcefully lift consumption.”

Chinese Stocks Pare Early Surge Stoked by Policy Optimism

Hong Kong equities, which finish trading later than their mainland counterparts, staged a late rebound on Monday after the Politburo’s announcement. US-listed Chinese shares also surged.

China’s government bonds extended a bull run, with yields on the benchmark 10-year paper hitting a fresh record low after falling nearly 13 basis points in the past two days.

Investors will closely scrutinize the annual Central Economic Work Conference scheduled for later this week to see if policymakers will unveil fresh, potent measures to back up their latest stimulus pledge.

Some observers seem more cautious.

“I don’t anticipate the policies to vastly exceed expectations,” according to Bo Pei, an equity research analyst at US Tiger Securities. “For those participating, I recommend closing positions after the CEWC concludes and the official communique is released,” he said.

—With assistance from Winnie Hsu, Wenjin Lv and John Cheng.

(Updates with stock, bond moves and analyst comments)