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The SONAR National Truckload Index (NTI) has reached levels not seen in nearly two years, surging from $2.38 per mile to $2.52. The last time truckload spot rates were this high was on Jan. 23, 2023.

SONAR Outbound tender rejection rates increased 63 basis points week over week from 5.24% on Dec. 5 to 5.87%, its highest point since July 8 of this year.

Interestingly, the strong peak response comes even as dry van outbound tender volumes exhibit a year-over-year decline, suggesting these improvements may be driven by capacity factors.

Dry van outbound tender volumes are down 625.6 points or 7.32% at 7,926.19 points compared to the same period last year when VOTVI registered at 8,551.79 points.

While not directly comparable, there were 14,444 fewer trucking authorities as of Friday, with a total of 344,541 active trucking authorities according to SONAR Carrier Details Total Trucking Authorities data (CDTTA).

This reflects a 4% decrease from the 358,985 authorities reported on Dec. 15, 2023, the nearest record for a year-over-year comparison.

Tighter conditions in spite of lower volumes suggests any volume surge in 2025 could create challenges for shippers in finding capacity. Shippers would be well advised to lock in contract rates, even at higher levels, just to secure capacity. If Trump’s policies create significant economic stimulus, the freight market could see a significant demand surge. This would be bad news for shippers, as carriers could inflict carrier revenge on shippers that have been difficult to deal with.

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