News
Fed's Preferred Inflation Gauge Falls More Than Expected: Markets Breathe Sigh Of Relief
The Federal Reserve’s key inflation measure came in below expectations for November, delivering welcome relief Friday to markets after the central bank warned earlier this week of mounting price pressures heading into the new year.
The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index grew by 2.4% in November 2024 on a year-over-year basis, up from 2.3% in October, according to government data. The figure missed economist forecasts of 2.5%, yet it marked the second consecutive monthly increase in this key inflation measure.
On a monthly basis, the PCE index advanced 0.1%, decelerating from October's 0.2%.
Excluding volatile components like food and energy, core PCE held steady at 2.8% year-over-year, below expectations of 2.9%. On a monthly basis, core PCE growth slowed to 0.1%, down from the prior 0.3% and below expectations of 0.2%.
In tandem with the inflation data, the report also showed that personal income rose 0.3% month-over-month in November, slowing from October's 0.5% increase and missing expectations of 0.4%. Personal spending grew by 0.4%, slightly below forecasts but in line with October's increase, signaling resilient consumer activity heading into the holiday season.
Another Reality Check For Markets
The unexpectedly softer November PCE reading could provide relief after days of heightened market volatility triggered by this week’s Federal Reserve meeting.
On Wednesday, the Fed signaled a slower pace of rate cuts and raised its inflation projections for 2025 and beyond, reinforcing its hawkish stance.
Policymakers now forecast headline PCE inflation to reach 2.5% next year, up from the September projection of 2.1%, and 2.1% in 2026, compared to the previous 2% estimate. Similarly, core PCE inflation is now expected to hit 2.5% in 2025, up from 2.2%, and 2.1% in 2026, revised from 2%.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell 's remarks further dashed market hopes when he announced a "new phase" in monetary policy, signaling caution against easing further as interest rates approach the neutral level.
Prior to Friday's data release, money markets had priced in 65 basis points of cumulative rate cuts for next year.
Dollar Falls, Equity Futures Trim Losses
Read Next:
Photo via Shutterstock.
Up Next: Transform your trading with Benzinga Edge's one-of-a-kind market trade ideas and tools. Click now to access unique insights that can set you ahead in today's competitive market.
Get the latest stock analysis from Benzinga?
This article Fed's Preferred Inflation Gauge Falls More Than Expected: Markets Breathe Sigh Of Relief originally appeared on Benzinga.com
© 2024 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.