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US inflation is lingering and tariffs threatened by Trump could nudge prices in wrong direction

An inflation gauge closely watched by the Federal Reserve rose slightly last month, while some underlying prices pressures showed signs of easing. The latest inflation figures arrive as President Donald Trump has threatened to impose big import taxes on goods from Canada and Mexico, potentially affecting everything from autos to avocados, which could push prices higher in the coming months. Friday’s report from the Commerce Department showed that consumer prices rose 2.6% in December from a year earlier, up from a 2.4% annual pace in November and the third straight increase.

Oil set for weekly decline as Trump tariff threat looms large

LONDON (Reuters) -Oil prices were steady on Friday but on course for weekly declines as markets waited to see if U.S. President Donald Trump will follow through on his threat to impose tariffs on Mexico and Canada on Saturday. Brent crude futures for March, which expire on Friday, were down 9 cents at $76.78 a barrel by 1420 GMT. Oil came under pressure from the potential negative economic impact of U.S. tariffs against Canada, Mexico and China, said PVM analyst Tamas Varga, adding that potential dollar appreciation as a result of tariffs also weighed on oil.

Instant View: US Dec PCE inflation uptick supports Fed hold

The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.3% last month after an unrevised 0.1% gain in November, the Commerce Department said on Friday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the PCE price index climbing 0.3%. In the 12 months through December, the PCE price index advanced 2.6% after rising 2.4% in November.

Fed’s Favored Inflation Gauge Ends 2024 With a Muted Advance

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Fed’s Bowman Wants More Inflation Progress Before Cutting Rates

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Traders bet Fed's next rate cut will wait until June

After the inflation report, released at the same time as hawkish monetary policy remarks from Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, traders of futures that settle to the Fed's policy rate priced in about a 70% chance that the short-term borrowing rate will be 4.25% or lower after the Fed's June meeting, little changed from earlier in the day. They were pricing in a second and final 2025 interest rate cut no sooner than October.