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Hedge Fund Mount Lucas Sells Treasuries as Fed Bets Gone Too Far

(Bloomberg) -- Investors have little room to take advantage of the rally in US Treasuries now, with the Federal Reserve unlikely to cut rates as aggressively as the market expects, according to Mount Lucas Management LP. Most Read from BloombergBiden Invests $100 Million to Fuel Housing ConstructionHow Chicago’s Gigantic Merchandise Mart Is Still Thriving as Office SpaceGottheimer Calls for Rail Riders to Be Reimbursed for DelaysJohannesburg Mayor Quits Amid Infighting, Financial WoesLos Angeles

Oil Slips After Five-Day Rally as OPEC Trims Demand Forecasts

(Bloomberg) -- Oil slipped after a five-day advance, with a likely escalation in the Middle East conflict offset by signs of weakening global demand growth.Most Read from BloombergHow a Tiny Midwestern Town Became a Mecca for Modern ArchitectureHow Chicago’s Gigantic Merchandise Mart Is Still Thriving as Office SpaceLos Angeles Sees Remote Work Helping ‘No Car’ 2028 Olympic GamesGottheimer Calls for Rail Riders to Be Reimbursed for DelaysIn DNC, Chicago’s Embattled Transit System Faces a High-Pr

OPEC cuts oil demand growth forecast, highlighting dilemma over Oct hike

LONDON (Reuters) -OPEC on Monday cut its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024 citing softer expectations for China, a reduction that highlights the dilemma faced by the wider OPEC+ group in raising production from October. This is the first cut in OPEC's 2024 forecast since it was made in July 2023, and comes after mounting signs that demand in China has lagged expectations due to slumping diesel consumption and as a crisis in the property sector hampers the economy. In a monthly report on Monday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said world oil demand will rise by 2.11 million barrels per day in 2024, down from growth of 2.25 million bpd expected last month.

Morning Bid: Markets pray inflation stays well behaved

Off-radar for much of the past week's market turbulence, U.S. inflation updates this week will reveal just how much latitude the Federal Reserve has to meet pumped-up expectations around its first interest rate cut next month. With the S&P500 ending last week basically unchanged despite days of outsize swings, the VIX volatility gauge has returned close to long-term means around 20.

Americans' refusal to keep paying higher prices may be dealing a final blow to US inflation spike

The great inflation spike of the past three years is nearly spent — and economists credit American consumers for helping slay it. “While inflation is down, prices are still high, and I think consumers have gotten to the point where they’re just not accepting it,” Tom Barkin, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, said last week at a conference of business economists. A more price-sensitive consumer helps explain why inflation has appeared to be steadily falling toward the Federal Reserve's 2% target, ending a period of painfully high prices that strained many people's budgets and darkened their outlooks on the economy.

US consumer medium-term inflation expectations drop

The median three-year inflation expectation dropped to 2.3% from 2.9% in June to register its lowest reading since the New York Fed launched the monthly Survey of Consumer Expectations in 2013. Fed officials - who've been battling high inflation for more than two years - track a range of measures of inflation expectations because they worry that if they begin to drift substantially upward, consumers and businesses will alter their spending behaviors in ways that can make inflation harder to tame. Recent measures of inflation have shown it returning toward the Fed's 2% target, and the central bank is now widely expected to cut interest rates next month.

Oil rises for fifth straight session on Mideast tensions and US data

NEW YORK (Reuters) -Oil prices were up by more than $1 a barrel on Monday, rising for a fifth consecutive session on intensifying Middle East supply risks and fading fears of a possible U.S. recession. Brent crude futures were up $1.32, or 1.6%, at $80.98 a barrel by 1531 GMT. Iran and Hezbollah have vowed to retaliate for the assassinations of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and Hezbollah military commander Fuad Shukr.