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Fed caution, inflation risks propel US Treasury yield forecasts higher again- Reuters poll

U.S. Treasury yield forecasts from bond strategists have marched higher for a second month amid expectations of limited remaining Federal Reserve rate reductions and rising inflation risks in 2025, a Reuters survey found. Having kicked off its easing cycle with a jumbo half-percentage point cut in September, the central bank has lowered its fed funds rate by 75 basis points and looks set to trim another 25 bps on Wednesday to 4.25%-4.50%. Yet, since the first reduction, the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, which moves inversely to prices, has shot up around 70 basis points - hitting a near six-month high of 4.50% last month.

Morning Bid: Bonds agitated as Fed meets, G7 politics rumble

Even with another Federal Reserve interest rate cut this week baked in to market pricing, U.S. Treasury bonds appear anxious again about the year ahead - with political upheavals in Germany and Canada clouding the overseas picture. As the Fed meets for the last time this year, there's little doubt in futures markets that it will cut another quarter point off its policy rate. But with the sort of roaring growth in the dominant U.S. services sector seen in this week's December surveys, record high stock markets and likely tax cuts ahead, barely two more cuts are expected next year and Fed policymakers are expected to lift their estimate of long-run neutral rates above 3%.

Germany Cuts Federal Debt Sales 13% to €380 Billion in 2025

(Bloomberg) -- Germany will reduce federal debt sales by 13% next year as the government scales back despite a sputtering economy and pressure to support Ukraine’s defense against Russia. Most Read from BloombergHow California Sees the World, and ItselfHong Kong's Expat Party Hub Reshaped by Chinese InfluxLondon’s Tube Fares Are Set to Rise by 4.6% Next YearWith a change of power pending, the administration intends to sell about €380 billion ($400 billion) in securities, according to a statement

Swiss economy to grow 1.5% next year, government forecasts

The Swiss economy will grow by 1.5% next year, the government forecast on Tuesday, slightly revising down its outlook for one of Europe's traditionally most resilient economies. Switzerland's export-oriented economy had previously been forecast to grow by 1.2% this year and 1.6% next year, the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) said. SECO said domestic demand is likely to be a key driver of growth next year in Switzerland, which is having to weather subdued demand for its goods in Germany and China.

Bank of Korea board members see need to respond to slowing economy, minutes show

South Korea's monetary policy board members said there was a need to respond quickly and preemptively to a slowing economy, as they decided to lower interest rates for a second straight meeting on Nov. 28, according to minutes released on Tuesday. "It is deemed more urgent at this time to respond preemptively to downward pressure on the economy," one member said. "As rate cuts alone will be insufficient to control the risks at hand, there is a critical need for timely and flexible policy coordination with fiscal policy," the member said.

Australian consumers fret over the economy in December, survey shows

Australian consumer sentiment took a step back in December as concerns about the economic outlook outweighed an improvement in people's own finances, a survey showed on Tuesday. The Westpac-Melbourne Institute index of consumer sentiment fell 2.0% in December, unwinding a little of the sharp gains seen over the previous two months. Westpac Senior Economist Matthew Hassan said the pullback was likely influenced by a disappointing reading on economic growth released in early December.