Fed caution, inflation risks propel US Treasury yield forecasts higher again- Reuters poll
U.S. Treasury yield forecasts from bond strategists have marched higher for a second month amid expectations of limited remaining Federal Reserve rate reductions and rising inflation risks in 2025, a Reuters survey found. Having kicked off its easing cycle with a jumbo half-percentage point cut in September, the central bank has lowered its fed funds rate by 75 basis points and looks set to trim another 25 bps on Wednesday to 4.25%-4.50%. Yet, since the first reduction, the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, which moves inversely to prices, has shot up around 70 basis points - hitting a near six-month high of 4.50% last month.