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For all the extreme bullishness about 2025, Wall Street is just a bit edgy as the Federal Reserve looks set to deliver its final interest rate of 2024 and give a glimpse into next year. Remarkably, the Dow Jones Industrial Average's 9-day losing streak is the longest negative run since 1978 - but the index is still just under 4% from record highs set earlier this month. As Treasury yields have backed up sharply again over the past fortnight - even as the latest U.S. industrial production and retail sales excluding autos missed forecasts for last month - the yearend is looking more anxious than ebullient new year forecasts suggest.

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The Federal Reserve will conclude its final meeting of 2024 on Wednesday, and next year will likely be Fed Chair Jerome Powell's last full one at the helm of the U.S. central bank, with his four-year term due to expire in May of 2026. Powell's more than six years as Fed chief have been consequential, but the coming months could present new challenges as well as an opportunity to close out some unfinished business. Powell's main mission is "completing the 'soft landing' with inflation at 2% and full employment, in what's likely to be trickier weather" with tax, tariff and immigration policies that could make the economic landscape harder to read, said Donald Kohn, a former Fed vice chair who is now a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.

The Federal Reserve appears likely to take a step on Wednesday to nudge cash off its balance sheet as it enters a more uncertain period in what many see as the final months in its effort to draw down its balance sheet. Economists broadly expect the Fed to announce it's cutting the rate it pays money market funds and others to park cash at its overnight reverse repo facility, or ONRRP, by a bigger margin than the expected cut to its policy rate. While the federal funds rate target is seen being trimmed by a quarter-percentage-point to between 4.25% and 4.50%, the reverse repo rate, or RRP, is seen falling to 4.25% from its current setting of 4.55%.

Markets expect the Fed to deliver its third consecutive rate cut later today in Washington, but are divided over its path in 2025.

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