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LONDON (Reuters) -U.S. President Donald Trump emerged as one of the biggest threats hanging over the British economy on Wednesday, when the country's fiscal watchdog said slow growth and a heavy debt burden made it especially vulnerable to his proposed tariffs. Finance minister Rachel Reeves delivered a politically unpopular cut to the welfare budget and other reductions in her spending plans, all to keep the economy on track for a key fiscal target that was designed to reassure investors after short-lived former Prime Minister Liz Truss's market meltdown of 2022. But the country's independent fiscal watchdog said a global trade war could reduce economic output, while a rise in Bank of England interest rates and gilt yield expectations could wipe out her small headroom against that fiscal target.

Risks have increased that U.S. inflation will stall above the Federal Reserve's 2% target or even rise further in the near term, with rising import taxes potentially triggering more persistent price pressures, St. Louis Fed president Alberto Musalem said on Wednesday. Musalem said that while the initial direct effect of import taxes, also known as tariffs, could be short-lived, he was "wary" to think it would all fade away without influencing underlying inflation in a way that could force the Fed to react. If it pushes inflation expectations and prices higher in a consistent way, Musalem said, it may even require the Fed to consider tighter monetary policy down the road, though that is not his baseline outlook.

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Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari on Wednesday said he's uncertain about the effect of President Donald Trump's tariffs on the U.S. economy, with the possibility that they could push up prices arguing for higher interest rates, and the chance that they could slow economic growth calling for reducing borrowing costs. Together those forces are "kind of a wash," he told the Detroit Lakes Chamber Economic Summit, meaning that the Fed should "just sit where we are for an extended period of time until we get clarity." Kashkari's comments reflect what appears to be a widely held view at the Fed that there is no rush to cut rates, as Fed Chair Jerome Powell also signaled last week after the central bank held short-term interest rates in the 4.25%-4.5% range.

U.S. oil and gas activity increased slightly in the first quarter, but energy company executives were pessimistic about the sector's outlook, wary of new trade policies from President Donald Trump's administration, a Dallas Fed survey showed on Wednesday. Trump has promised to unleash U.S. energy dominance, declaring a national energy emergency on his first day in office. Trump imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum on March 12 and more tariffs could be coming on April 2.

NEW YORK (Reuters) -The end of various pandemic-era student loan support programs likely portends a rise in credit issues for borrowers, although it will take time to understand the full extent of the problem, New York Federal Reserve researchers said on Wednesday. “We expect to see more than nine million student loan borrowers face substantial declines in credit standing over the first quarter of 2025,” the regional Fed bank said in a blog posting. New York Fed economists acknowledged there’s lots of uncertainty over how this increased trouble in the student lending sector will play out, but noted that those with higher levels of credit scores appear to have the most room to lose.

The darkest U.S. consumer confidence outlook in 12 years is sobering, to say the least, but the big question for investors is whether consumers actually rein in spending to match their apparent gloom. Today, I'll discuss this, give you an update on what else is happening in markets and then take a look at how much of next week's potential U.S. tariff sweep is being priced into currency markets. * The European Union's trade commissioner Maros Sefcovic met with U.S. President Donald Trump's top trade officials on Tuesday to try to avoid steep U.S. tariffs on EU goods next week.